The science of weather forecasting has come a long way. They have significantly improved their ability to predict trends in the weather due to enhanced measurement of specific variables, better understanding of the physical laws that rule their interaction, and the implementation of incredibly complex computer programs. That vast improvement means that now they can forecast out for a few days with a relatively high degree of accuracy.

You say that you want to know the weather for your upcoming event so you can plan accordingly? If your big day is tomorrow, you might ask the weatherman. He can give you a decent idea of expected conditions. If your important occasion is going to be next summer, however, you might as well visit the fortune tellers. They will be able to tell you as well as the talking heads dancing in front of a weather map.

That is not to disparage the weather forecasting profession. It is a very complex undertaking. They are highly trained and use advanced technological tools. Any weather professional will tell you, however, that it is not possible, nor will it ever be possible, to give accurate, totally-reliable forecasts for a month, a year or a decade into the future. No matter how sophisticated the computer program, the weather models can only use inputs as they exist today. Those inputs will be different tomorrow. As the system looks further into the future, evermore uncertainty enters the picture. The real world is an integrated system and unpredictable future events necessarily have unpredictable results. Any honest professional would tell you that the further out you plan, the less is known about the expected conditions and the more flexibility you need in your undertaking.

The world beyond weather is also vastly complex and interactive. The weather is just one of the countless inputs into the reality of human life and society. Natural disasters, such as earthquakes and volcanic eruptions can affect the lives of millions of people in direct and indirect ways. Riots and revolutions can change the political landscape and the relations between nations. Financial events, such as the present collapse of the real estate and financial bubbles, can be wide ranging, affecting the bulk of the population of the world.

The economics profession tries to understand of how the system of human interaction works. Various economic laws dictate the results of the interaction of people in society. Over the last few centuries, they have become quite well known and relatively undisputed, much the same as the laws of physics, which drive the weather. Many brilliant and highly educated economists have taken to building complex models similar to the weather forecasting systems. They also use powerful computers and sophisticated software to crunch the numbers from a sea of statistical data to arrive at forecasts. There is one major problem with the economic model builders. They don’t share the humility of the weather forecasters.

Economic reality is much more complex and unpredictable than the weather, since weather is but one factor that influences economic outcomes. Even with the best models by the smartest people using the latest technology, the results can be fairly reliable for only a few days out, for the same reasons that weather forecasting models have limited reliability. The future is truly unknowable and not subject to reliable forecasting, yet economists believe that they can know what the future holds. They believe that they have ability to plan for millions or billions of people, because they are smart and have cool gadgets.

The lack of humility is dangerous for human society. When the future is unknown and unknowable, the best policy is flexibility. Economists have become a powerful interest group in modern society because they have the rhetorical tools to influence public policy. Politicians, who use and are used by the economists, don’t care much for flexibility. National laws are designed to bind everyone, regardless of their individual situation, geographic location or philosophy of life. While the reliability of models may extend for days, the policies that they justify may take years to enact, and more years before the full effects are realized. At that point, the conditions in reality have changed, while the politics has been set in stone.

With 300 million people in America, a model that plans for the average American must necessarily be the wrong plan for everyone who is not average, meaning almost all of them. What we need is flexibility, not the arrogance of politicians and model builders.